North Georgia's warm, wet winter is going to move right into a warm, wet spring, according to State Climatologist Bill Murphey with the Georgia Environmental Protection Division.
Murphey called this winter's weather pattern "a slight El Nino phase."
"That's what we've been in really through the entire winter pretty much and it looks like we're going to stay in that pattern through the next few weeks to a month at least," Murphey said, noting that wetter and warmer conditions are on tap for the entire spring season.
Murphey said rain gauges have been overflowing since the first of the year.
"The Gainesville co-op station, for example, the last 60 days [recorded] six to eight inches above normal," Murphey said. "The normal value for the last 60 days is 10.61 [inches], and total rainfall amounts have been 17.68, so pretty much 167-percent above normal for the last 60 days...166-percent above normal for the last 30 days."
Going back to January 1, Murphey said the Gainesville area has officially recorded 22.46 inches of rain, which is the all-time record for the first three months of the year since 1892.
Murphey said the rain has erased all drought in the state and the level of Lake Lanier remains well above full pool, and he considers those factors environmental positives. However, he knows too much rain can cause problems. In fact, his long-range prediction for the next three months shows the heaviest spring rainfall in the part of Georgia north of I-20.
"Flooding is a big issue because there's nowhere for the water to run off, not to mention downed trees are possible whenever we have wind events because the soils are so saturated. You know, root systems give way real easy, especially these top-heavy big old oak trees around the state," Murphey said.
Besides the rain, Murphey anticipates warm weather will continue, saying the winter wasn't really cold at all.
"We've had some quick shots of cold air advection, but nothing prolonged," Murphey said.
As far as predicting any spring freezes, Murphey said he's not willing to make any guesses.
"Historically speaking...we can have some shots of cold air and below freezing temps. It's possible to dip back into a brief period of winter, but I think our chances for an extended real cold Arctic intrusion - that type of thing that lasts for a few days - I think that's gone out of here," Murphey said.
North Georgia farmers challenged by rain, lack of cold this winter
Of course, Georgia farmers - especially peach and blueberry growers - depend on a certain number of chill hours for a successful crop. Most North Georgia farmers seem to be okay as far as that's concerned, but those in middle and south Georgia still need a few more cold nights, Murphey said.
The rain seems to be the bigger farming challenge in this region, according to Josh Presley, outside agronomist with White County Farmers Exchange in Cleveland. He likens the winters months of farmers to an off-season for sports teams.
"So, what farmers are doing is they're going out and conditioning their fields," Presley said. "Usually, the winter time is when there are no crops out there, so farmers can get out there and get a soil test done, get out there and get lime put on the ground."
Most of the off-season work requires heavy equipment, but when the fields are too wet, that equipment is easily bogged down, hampering the prep work that needs to be done.
"Most folks are stuck before they ever even get on the fields that they're trying to get into," Presley said.
In fact, because of the February rains, White County Farmers Exchange only had two or three days during the month when their clients were able to treat and prep their fields. Even so, Presley said farmers are used to challenges, and they are resilient.
"If we can get a few days here and there to catch some sunshine, we can usually find a plan to circumvent even Mother Nature," Presley said. "Farmers have been doing this for awhile and no year is perfect."
Presley said the biggest issue right now is treating hay fields and other pastures where forage products are grown for feeding cattle.
"That's some of the biggest industry in White County and Hall County alike, so folks are trying to get out there with some nitrogen and fertilizing products to get some good growth on that grass," Presley said.
Rest assured, Presley said, no matter the season, farmers in North Georgia are keeping a close eye on the weather.
"If you talk to any farmer who has an iPhone, their weather app is probably the one that gets worn out the most," Presley said. "They're checking it at all times of the day...they're trying to formulate that plan."
