ATLANTA & NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb 3, 2025--
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE), a leading global provider of technology and data, today released its February 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor Report, based on the company’s robust mortgage, real estate and public records data sets.
Home prices ended the year on an up note but 2024 was the softest year for home price growth in more than a decade. This month’s Mortgage Monitor analyzes the latest trends shaping the housing market heading into 2025, including a deep dive into the local and broader impacts of the California wildfires, which hit while homeowners in southern states are still recovering from the most recent hurricane season.
“Natural disasters continue to be in the spotlight across the country, and our hearts go out to the tens of thousands of affected households,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research for Intercontinental Exchange. “Early data shows financial pressures building among homeowners impacted by the ongoing California wildfires, while at the same time, more than 56K homeowners are still struggling to get back on track with monthly payments across seven states in the wake of last year’s major hurricanes.
“ICE’s McDash Flash daily data suggests that nearly 5% fewer homeowners inside California’s Palisades and Eaton fire zones had made their January mortgage payment by mid-month, when compared with the same time in December,” Walden continued. “Keep in mind those fires broke out after many homeowners had already made their January payments, so we likely won’t see the true stresses those homeowners are facing until February payments become due.”
“We’re also beginning to see potential downstream impacts among a number of the more than 140 municipal entities that were at least partially exposed to the ongoing wildfires, with spread-widening being seen in City of Los Angeles water and power municipal bonds which are typically paid through local water and power revenues. This represents perhaps the first time the bond market has experienced a nearly immediate repricing of municipal debt due to a natural disaster,” said Walden.
Turning to the broader market, ICE’s U.S. Conforming 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate Lock Weighted APR Index Futures, suggest modest improvement in rates over the spring buying season as of Jan. 21, with 30-year rates now implied to be near 6.6% by July 2025.
Overall, for-sale inventory enters the year as a bright spot for a market that’s been dealing with deep deficits in recent years. Inventory levels grew by 22% in 2024, with a quarter of markets, largely in the southern U.S. now back to or above pre-pandemic levels.
“At the current rate of improvement, another 15% of markets, primarily in the South and West would be on pace to see inventory levels normalize this year,” Walden said. “At the same time, Midwest and Northeast markets continue to face steep deficits and a slower path to recovery. Given the disparity of inventories across the country it is no surprise to see 18 of the 20 strongest housing markets from a price growth perspective located in inventory-starved portions of the Midwest and Northeast.”
From a mortgage performance perspective, the market enters 2025 on a mixed note. Overall, the national mortgage delinquency rate remains 22 basis points (bps) below pre-pandemic levels, but mortgage performance is a tale of two markets. Performance remains strong among GSE and portfolio-held loans, with delinquencies among portfolio-held mortgages down 11 bps from last year and 1.1 percentage points from the beginning of 2020. FHA delinquencies, on the other hand, have been sharply rising, and now sit 2.5 percentage points above pre-pandemic levels. VA delinquencies have also been on the rise, up 80 bps in 2024 and 83 bps from the beginning of 2020.
Despite gradually rising delinquencies in recent months, the total number of foreclosures started and completed (sales) in 2024 hit record lows – outside of the COVID-19 moratoria – due to the prevalence of forbearance and other loss mitigation efforts, along with the strong equity footing of mortgage holders in today’s market. Low foreclosures aside, mortgage performance is likely to be a focal point in 2025.
Further information on this and other topics can be found in this month’s Mortgage Monitor.
About Mortgage Monitor
ICE manages the nation’s leading repository of loan-level residential mortgage data and performance information covering the majority of the overall market, including tens of millions of loans across the spectrum of credit products and more than 160 million historical records. The combined insight of the ICE Home Price Index and Collateral Analytics’ home price and real estate data provides one of the most complete, accurate and timely measures of home prices available, covering 95% of U.S. residential properties down to the zip code level. In addition, the company maintains one of the most robust public property records databases available, covering 99.9% of the U.S. population and households from more than 3,100 counties.
ICE’s research experts carefully analyze this data to produce a summary supplemented by dozens of charts and graphs that reflect trend and point-in-time observations for the monthly Mortgage Monitor Report. To review the full report, visit: https://www.icemortgagetechnology.com/resources/data-reports
About Intercontinental Exchange
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE) is a Fortune 500 company that designs, builds, and operates digital networks that connect people to opportunity. We provide financial technology and data services across major asset classes helping our customers access mission-critical workflow tools that increase transparency and efficiency. ICE’s futures, equity, and options exchanges -- including the New York Stock Exchange -- and clearing houses help people invest, raise capital and manage risk. We offer some of the world’s largest markets to trade and clear energy and environmental products. Our fixed income, data services and execution capabilities provide information, analytics and platforms that help our customers streamline processes and capitalize on opportunities. At ICE Mortgage Technology, we are transforming U.S. housing finance, from initial consumer engagement through loan production, closing, registration and the long-term servicing relationship. Together, ICE transforms, streamlines, and automates industries to connect our customers to opportunity.
Trademarks of ICE and/or its affiliates include Intercontinental Exchange, ICE, ICE block design, NYSE and New York Stock Exchange. Information regarding additional trademarks and intellectual property rights of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. and/or its affiliates is located here. Key Information Documents for certain products covered by the EU Packaged Retail and Insurance-based Investment Products Regulation can be accessed on the relevant exchange website under the heading “Key Information Documents (KIDS).”
Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 -- Statements in this press release regarding ICE's business that are not historical facts are "forward-looking statements" that involve risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of additional risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, see ICE's Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, including, but not limited to, the risk factors in ICE's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, as filed with the SEC on February 8, 2024.
Source: Intercontinental Exchange
Category: Mortgage Technology
ICE-CORP
View source version on businesswire.com:https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250203883770/en/
CONTACT: ICE Media Contact
Brad Kuhn
+1 (904) 248-6341ICE Investor Contact:
Katia Gonzalez
+1 (678) 981-3882
KEYWORD: UNITED STATES NORTH AMERICA CALIFORNIA NEW YORK GEORGIA
INDUSTRY KEYWORD: SOFTWARE NETWORKS PROFESSIONAL SERVICES FINTECH DATA MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGY RESIDENTIAL BUILDING & REAL ESTATE ENVIRONMENT CONSTRUCTION & PROPERTY DATA ANALYTICS NATURAL DISASTERS FINANCE
SOURCE: Intercontinental Exchange
Copyright Business Wire 2025.
PUB: 02/03/2025 09:00 AM/DISC: 02/03/2025 09:01 AM
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250203883770/en
