Across our nation, millions are voting early, while absentee ballots and drop box utilization is down considerably since 2020. Democrats long ago got with this program, in Georgia and elsewhere, of taking advantage of nearly three weeks of advance voting, weekend voting and no excuse voting by absentee, it would appear that their GOP counterparts finally got that memo this time around.
As of this writing, more than 3-million ballots have already been cast in Georgia. That pace sets a record, with three days left to vote ahead of Election Day, I expect a total turnout of 5-million. But where this voting is occurring is a bit different, and where Blue votes are being countered by Red, almost in cancelling pairs, is another first. Typically in Georgia, since the 2016 Presidential contest, Democrats have won early and absentee voting, dominating metro Atlanta's core and secondary urban population centers, and the GOP has dominated Election Day, all of rural Georgia, as well as the suburbs of out-lying MSAs.
Georgia’s top voting county, to no surprise, is Fulton County with 338, 825 ballots cast as of 10/29. Turnout so far is 38% of 891,933 registered voters. For purposes of comparison, there were 525,293 total ballots cast in Fulton during the 2020 General Election. Biden then won the county by a margin of 243,904 votes, and Georgia by roughly 13,000 votes
Rounding out the top five in raw voter turnout are Gwinnett, Cobb, DeKalb and Cherokee Counties. Since 2016, the Georgia GOP has only had 3 counties in the Top 10, each 7 and below. This time there are two in the top 7, and the turnout in rural red Georgia is already above 50 percent in many counties. Turnout is down in raw vote and percentages in several Democratic strongholds including DeKalb, Henry, Clayton, Rockdale and Douglas Counties. The Hispanic vote thus far, Georgia’s fastest growing demographic, is an anemic 2.8 percent.
Longtime Democratic/Progressive strongholds like Athens/Clarke County, are witnessing neighboring counties such as Barrow and Jackson tying or out-voting them. Macon/Bibb County is more than 15,000 ballots behind its much more conservative neighbor, Houston County.
In ten different polls since 10/8, Trump has led in Battleground Georgia in all ten, from 1-6%. His Real Clear Polling average for Georgia is +2.3%.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/georgia/trump-vs-harris
From CNN lead polling analyst, Harry Enten, during 2016, 83 percent of polls underestimated Trump's final vote and 100 percent underestimated Trump during 2020. Trump under-polls, with his actual vote totals surpassing his polling numbers by 2-3 percentage points.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4951283-harry-enten-polls-battleground-states/
Vice-President Harris returns to Georgia Saturday, November 2, 2024 to make one final closing argument to Georgia voters. IF the VP holds the Blue Wall (including Pennsylvania), and either wins Georgia or flips North Carolina (Trump's narrowest victory in 2020), she still has a path to 270 Electoral College votes, victory and residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Trump's simplest path requires holding North Carolina, and flipping Georgia and Pennsylvania since 2020.
However western Carolina voters will be hard pressed to GET to a polling place, or mail an absentee ballot. I believe post-Helene litigation related to ballot access may delay any outcome in North Carolina, just as Florida experienced with butterfly ballots and hanging chads after the 2000 election.
Pennsylvania does not START ballot tabulation until its last precinct closes on Election Day. Any way you slice this, we are in for a long Election Night. In recent weeks, polling and momentum seems to have shifted in Trump's favor, as undecided and independent voters are breaking heavily in his favor.
Like or loathe Donald Trump, the nation largely thinks it knows him. VP Harris is lesser known and has had a bumpy few weeks of interviews and appearances which have at times not helped her cause. The results of this election are not yet foregone, but at the moment, Trump is edging out a lead. He has however proven, as recently as 2020, that he is still very capable of beating himself, and that he is often his own worst enemy. Whichever way the voters decide, and whether or not we go into overtime and litigation aplenty, America is a strong nation and our republic will survive, just as we have overcome more challenging times before, including a Civil War, Great Depression and Watergate.
