As of this writing, Runoff Election Day is just ahead, and Georgians set an Advance Voting Record of 1,868,127 ballots being cast ahead of Election Day, with a turnout total of 26%, more or less debunking ongoing claims of voter suppression. The African American vote count of 595,269 (just under one-third of the total), exceeds the black voter percentage of the Georgia population, as well as percent of registered voters. White non-Hispanic voters account for 1,029,654 of those ballots, not quite 56 percent of the ballot totals. More importantly in terms of forecasting results, nearly 1/3 of all ballots were cast in only four counties - Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, and Gwinnett County account for 617,305 votes. The only GOP majority county in the top 5 of raw votes is Forsyth County.
Senator Raphael Warnock, in the November General Election, won those top four counties by 57% (Cobb), 59% (Gwinnett), 74% (Fulton), and 84% (DeKalb). Those same counties were more competitive in the race between incumbent Governor Brian Kemp and challenger Stacey Abrams. However, the GOP U.S. Senate nominee, Herschel Walker received just over 200,000 votes less than Kemp, while Warnock out-performed Abrams by a similar margin. Kemp won by more than 8 percentage points, and Walker lost by just under 1 percent. But those long Kemp coattails, despite a highly visible endorsement, TV ads supporting Walker, and time spent together on the runoff campaign trail, may not be long enough to pull in enough votes in this final contest. The state map was awash in Red on General Election Day and will be again for this Runoff, football hero Walker will likely carry 120-130 counties, he just isn't winning BIG enough in the counties where the voters are.
The last week of campaigning was somewhat telling. Warnock was all over the state and held one of his closing stops and rallies in Gainesville, Georgia, in Hall County, in one of the state's two reliably most conservative and GOP-dominated Congressional Districts. Walker was much less visible, held fewer public appearances, and will close out his campaign Monday night in the safe space of Elijay in Gilmer County, in Georgia's other reliably 70 percent plus GOP voting district.
The U.S. House was won by a narrow majority by the GOP, with 220 seats currently, and a majority at 218, with two contests still undecided. Senate Democrats held onto 50 seats, a status quo, but keeping the Georgia seat will give them a 51 to 49 (GOP) Majority. This may sound like a minor difference, but with 51 seats, the Senate will no longer require a vote by the presiding Officer, Vice-President Kamala Harris to break ties, committee assignments and memberships will no longer be split, and with changes in Senate rules on cloture (to end debate), and filibusters around judicial appointments and Cabinet nominations, a Senate majority of 51 votes wins the day.
I am not a Constitutional law expert, but the framing statutes and Constitution do speak to Senators casting ballots, in impeachments as well as confirmation proceedings. The Vice-President may cast tie-breaking votes on matters of rules and federal statutes, but the Vice-President is not a member of the body, for confirmation or impeachment votes.
In all four of Georgia's U.S. Senate prior runoff contests, when the Libertarian nominee receives more than 2 percent of the vote om the General Election, a runoff contest follows as neither the Republican or Democratic nominee receives a simple majority.
In 1992, former Peace Corps Director Paul Coverdell ousted the Democratic incumbent Senator Wyche Fowler and decided the Senate Majority. During 2008, the Republican incumbent Senator Saxby Chambliss came back strong in the runoff, besting challenger Democrat, Jim Martin. Most recently in January of 2021, both runoff contests were won by the Democrats, Senators Jon Osoff and Raphael Warnock, with Warnock fulfilling the unexpired term of GOP Senator Johnny Isakson, and again deciding the Senate Majority.
It appears Warnock is about to repeat that victory, likely by a wider margin. Thundershowers are in the forecast for much of the state on Tuesday. Bad weather traditionally favors the GOP, and social conservatives and Trump supporters have demonstrated that a good soaking, thunder, and lightning won't keep them away on Election Day, but again, there is not likely enough of that hardcore in the GOP outstanding voting base to shift the tide. The Biden agenda will struggle a good bit against a GOP House, and a tied Senate would have likely brought that White House to a near complete stall on the legislative front. This time it looks like fourth and goal, and Walker is going to come up short.
