With just two weeks left in the regular season, a dozen teams are trying to stay alive for the playoffs while others are trying to capture region titles.
Five Northeast Georgia-area teams can claim region titles on Friday. Buford (Region 8-7A), Gainesville (8-6A), Jefferson (8-5A), North Forsyth (8-6A), Dawson County (7-3A), and Rabun County all can put the finishing touches on region titles with wins. Gainesville and North Forsyth meet at City Park Stadium with the winner claiming the 8-6A title. The loser will be the No. 2 seed.
Other teams like Lumpkin County (7-3A) and Union County (8-2A) can move within one win of a region title with victories on Friday. East Jackson in Region 8-2A can qualify for its first playoffs since 2009 with a win Friday.
And still others, like North Hall, East Forsyth, White County, Banks County, and Towns County can keep their playoff hopes alive with wins.
It should be a tension-filled night around the area.
COACHING MILESTONE: Buford coach Bryant Appling, already the only coach in GHSA history to win three state titles in his first three seasons as a head coach, can claim his 50th win as a coach if the Wolves can knock off Mountain View on the road. Appling is 49-3 overall and can tie Robert Davis of Warner Robins (1973-96) for the second-fastest in GHSA history to reach wins.*
REGION TITLE STREAKS ON THE LINE: Rabun County (9-0, 2-0 Region 8-A Division 1) currently holds the longest region win streak in the state (49) -- 47 in Region 8-2A before moving to 8-A D1 this season -- and can make it an even 50 straight while also capturing their 9th consecutive region title.
Buford with two straight region titles -- both in Region 8-6A -- has the next longest region title streak of area teams. The Wolves can make it three straight with a win over Mountain View tonight.
IT’S BEEN A WHILE, OR NEVER: Lumpkin County can’t win the Region 7-3A title outright with a win over Dawson County tonight at The Burial Grounds, but the Indians can certainly set up a shot at history. If they can find a way to beat their favored arch-rivals, a win next week against last-place West Hall would give them their first region title in its 62-year history. First-year coach Heath Webb’s team (8-0, 3-1 Region 7-3A) already has won more games than in the previous five seasons combined (7-43).
As mentioned above, Gainesville and North Forsyth both can capture the Region 8-6A title with a win over the other tonight. The Red Elephants have not won a region title since 2013 and the Raiders have gone even longer. They are looking for their first region crown since 2001. In fact, the last time both won region titles, Bruce Miller was their coach. He coached the Raiders in 2001 and the Red Elephants in 2013.
Union County can stay alive for a region title with a win over Athens Academy tonight. The Panthers have not won a region crown since taking back-to-back Region 8-B titles in 1972 and 1973.
THE LINES
As always, there are more than a few interesting lines this week involving Northeast Georgia area teams.
No way! Really?
Gainesville (-28) vs. North Forsyth at City Park -- NO WAY! Really?
Yes, the Red Elephants have been stomping people. They are 4th-best in defense in the classification (90, 11.25 ppg). They have only given up 27 points (6.75 ppg) in region play.
But the Raiders have not given up more than 35 in any game this season and are yielding just 14.5 ppg in region play. They have a grind-it-out offense that could have success and keep the ball out of the hands of the explosive offense.
Gainesville being favored at home is not an issue. The amount is. This is expected to be a hard-hitting, competitive defensive struggle. 28 POINTS? REALLY?
It just appears to be WAY too many points given the quality of teams. Expect a much closer game than the line indicates.
Shocking line of the week
Rabun County (-29) vs. Commerce in Tiger
Given the history of Commerce over the years, this one jumped right off the bat. Yes, the Wildcats have as explosive an offense as any in the state. They also have the state’s leading passer (Keegan Stover) and receiver (Jaden Gibson) coming into this one. They are averaging 37.3 ppg and 46.2 ppg in region play.
But in Commerce’s 12 losses going back the past four years, their average margin of loss is just 16.6 ppg. Only three times in that span have they dropped a game by more than 21 points, only once by more than 29.
The Wildcats are expected to win at home but the Tigers are a perfect 5-0 on the road in 2022. Expect a much closer game than most expect.
Scattered, smothered...and will cover!
We went just 2-2 last week in our COVER picks last week, moving us to 14-6 overall for the season. A disappointing week for sure.
As always, it was a challenge with several key games and several toss-up lines to match. However, once again we have braved taking on the biggest line of the week involving Jefferson. In fact, we will look at all three Jackson County-based teams in action this week. We also added an extra game this week as we looked at both region title showdown in Gainesville and Dahlonega.
Here goes...
-- Jefferson (-51) at Heritage, Conyers: We’re undefeated when picking Jefferson so why stop now. We’re not scared of the huge spread! The Dragons have to be riding high after hammering formerly-No. 3 ranked Loganville last week, 42-6, at Memorial Stadium. Heritage, on the other hand, is struggling across the board. The Patriots are last in the region in points scored (18, 4.5 ppg) and last in points allowed (205, 51.25 ppg). It’s a huge mismatch on paper and should be on the field. In games like these, with one having already clinched a playoff spot (Jefferson) there could be a slight tendency to have a let down. However, the Dragons can wrap up the region title with a win so don’t look for them to take their foot off the gas. Jefferson wins big, and we hope by AT LEAST the spread. We’re taking the Dragons to COVER the 51 points!
-- Gainesville (-28) vs. North Forsyth at City Park Stadium: This was a big line in our opinion, as we mentioned above. The Region 8-6A title is at stake for both teams. You have two of the better defenses in Class 6A. The two teams have played each of the last four seasons with the raiders winning 3 of 4 games. But the average margin of victory in those four games was just 14.75 ppg. Expect another hard-hitting competitive game. We’ll take Gainesville to win the game but please, please, please, give us the 28 points. North Forsyth COVERS with the 28 extra points!
-- Rabun County (-29) vs. Commerce in Tiger: As we said before, this was just a shocking line considering the history of the Tigers. You can apply everything we said above to this. Yes, we got burned last week taking the Tigers and the points. But they seem to play better on the road this season. We’re picking Rabun County to win the game at home where the Wildcats have won 10 straight and 15 of their last 16. But feel strongly about taking Commerce and the 29 points to COVER so we will!
-- East Jackson (+3) at Providence Christian: This will be our first time taking on the Eagles this season. They have a lot to play for tonight. A win and they will qualify for their first postseason since 2009. They already have the most wins (4) since 2016 and have one of the better defenses in a tough Region 8-2A. They held a potent Union County offense to just 21 last week. They should be able to do the same this week. We think the Eagles will win the game outright so give us the points. Eagles COVER the 3 points.
-- Dawson County (-2) at Lumpkin County: This literally will be the biggest game in the long history of these two arch-rivals. The Region 7-3A title is on the line for both. The Tigers can win it tonight with a win while the Indians can move within a win over West Hall next week for a chance at the program’s first-ever region crown. Perhaps the biggest key will be The Burial Grounds itself. Expect a raucous, overflow crowd. The Indians have the high-powered and high-flying offense while the Tigers have the region’s best defense. It should be a classic matchup. As a staff whole, Friday Game Night is taking Lumpkin County to defend its home territory. With that, give us the 2 points as well. Indians win AND COVER!
AREA TOP PERFORMERS: Rabun County senior wide receiver Jaden Gibson was joined by teammate and senior quarterback Keegan Stover atop the state leader board after last week's performance.
Gibson extended his all-time state receiving record to 4,652 for his career and now has 1,478 yards on the season, which leads the state by a whopping 532 yards. Gibson caught 4 TD passes to also extend his all-time state record to 53 TD catches for his career.
Meanwhile, Stover’s 295 yards last week pushed him into the state lead, all-classes, with 2,701 yards. He is 263-yards ahead of second place Tate Morris of McIntosh (2,438 yards).
Union County’s Caiden Tanner remained second in Class 2A with 1,922 yards and moved up to 17th overall.
Commerce’s Jaiden Daniels moved up to 11th overall in the state, the highest among Northeast Georgia-area players. The junior now has 1,359 yards and is just 138 yards behind Elbert County’s Quan Moss (1,497 yards) who leads Class A Division 1. Banks County’s Andrew Shockley is 23rd over with 1,150 yards.
The pair of runners are having an outstanding season. Daniels and Shockley would both be leading Class 4A (Jonaz Walton of Central-Carrollton, 1,134 yards) heading into this week.
(* -- Information from GHSF Daily)
