I know, I know. Doom and gloom abounds in the Bulldog Nation, but somehow the more even-keeled odds-makers in Vegas say Georgia should beat Missouri by 16+.
I was skeptical at first, but then I remember that a 17-point win doesn't necessarily equal a complete domination.
I harken back to Nashville, in the second week of the year, when the Bulldogs beat the Commode-doors 31-14.
Raise your hand if that game felt like a domination.
And here we are.
The last time...
1) These teams met:
Georgia came into the game without its starting running back, depending on a five-star backup to fill the gaping hole he left behind.
That sounds familiar, no?
Last year, with Todd Gurley suspended indefinitely (it turned out to be four games) and Sony Michel hurt, Nick Chubb was thrust into the starting role.
He became the work horse the team would ride for the remainder of the season, cranking out 174 total yards on 42 touches, but even the Human Freight Train wasn't the biggest story.
The Bulldog defense was stout, allowing just 147 total yards and forcing five turnovers in a 34-0 shutout in Columbia.
Unfortunately for Georgia, it was all for naut, as the Tigers won out (and the Bulldogs lost in Jacksonville) to claim the SEC East.
2) Georgia lost three conference games in a row:
There's a couple different ways of looking at this.
The most recent a stretch from 2010-11, when the Bulldogs dropped their final two conference games of the 2010 season—34-31 to Florida (OT) and 49-31 to Auburn. They opened conference play in 2011 with a loss to South Carolina 45-42.
If you're looking for three games in the same season, you need only move your calendar a little farther back.
Georgia lost its first three conference games to open 2010, with losses to the Gamecocks, Arkansas and Mississippi State in consecutive weeks.
3) Missouri scored more than 34 points in a true road game:
The Tigers haven't done this since last year's 42-13 win over Florida, which, incidentally, came a week after Mizzou's 34-0 loss to Georgia.
That game saw the Tigers score every way imaginable: run, kickoff return, punt return, fumble return and interception return.
Since then, they've never scored more than 34 points in a true road game, which they did at Texas A&M in 2014.
4) Georgia had a winless October:
I try to come up with stats for this blog that have a chance of applying themselves on Saturday.
What I mean by that: I try to present a streak that has a chance of breaking for the upcoming game. (Or shortly thereafter.)
I say all that because I don't want y'all to think I'm harping on the losing stats. It just so happens that the Bulldogs are in unfamiliar territory riding two straight losses, so there are plenty of dubious streaks on the line.
That aside, a loss to Missouri (and an at-this-point-hypothetical loss to Florida) would give Georgia its first winless October in 76 years.
The 1939 Bulldogs were the last team from Athens to go winless in October, posting an 0-4 record with losses to Furman, Holy Cross, Kentucky and New York University.
If that ain't motivation, I don't know what is.
5) Missouri lost on the third Saturday in October:
Apparently I'm on a calendar kick.
I know this gets really specific, but the Tigers haven't lost on the third Saturday of October since October 17, 2009, when they lost to Oklahoma State 33-17.
It was the second of three straight losses for the Fighting Pinkels, who went on to finish the season 8-5.
Mizzou has gone five straight Octobers without losing on the third Saturday (they had a bye that week in 2012). If you want to keep digging farther back, the Tigers are 7-2 in those games since 2005 (also lost in '08).
6) Georgia lost at home to the SEC East:
The Bulldogs haven't lost at home against the SEC East since ... Missouri in 2013.
The Tigers took down the injury-depleted Georgia squad 41-26 in a game that killed any chances of an SEC East crown for Richt and Co.
Since then the Bulldogs are 4-0 against the East in Sanford Stadium.
Digging a little further back, Georgia is 8-1 over its last 9 home games against the SEC East, dating back to the win over Kentucky in 2011.
7) Missouri won a conference championship:
The Tigers haven't won a conference championship since they won the Big 8 back in 1969.
Mizzou (9-2-0, 6-1-0) actually turned out to be co-champs with Nebraska (9-2-0, 6-1-0), but the Tigers bested the Cornhuskers 17-7 for a head-to-head tie breaker.
Missouri went on to lose the Orange Bowl to Penn State 10-3.
Since then, the Tigers have never won an outright conference title (nor have they shared one). They won their division five times (Big 12 North in 2007, 2008 and 2010, and the SEC East in 2013 and 2014), but never won the conference championship game.
BONUS: What about an outright conference title?
Missouri hasn't won a title without sharing since 1960.
The Tigers won the Big 8, in part, because of Kansas.
The Jayhawks knocked off then-No. 1, undefeated Missouri to end the season, but it turned out Kansas had to forfeit the game, which turned into a win for the otherwise undefeated Tigers.
Mizzou finished the year 11-0-0 with a win over Navy in Orange Bowl and a conference title to put in its trophy case.
8) Brendan Douglas scored a touchdown:
I throw this stat in here because the junior from Augusta is expected to get more carries as the No. 3 tailback behind Sony Michel and Keith Marshall.
Douglas hasn't scored a touchdown since the Florida game of 2014, when he scored in garbage time in a 38-20 blowout.
Since then, he's had 48 more touches (10 this season) without a score.
BONUS: What about receiving?
Douglas has only caught one touchdown his entire career, and it came against ... Missouri.
He hauled in the first score of the day on a seven yard pass from Aaron Murray in the 41-26 loss in 2013.
Since then, he's caught nine more passes, though eight of them came in the last half of 2013. None have been for a touchdown.
9) Missouri lost a game where more than 80,000 people attended:
The Tigers haven't lost in a crowd of more than 80,000 since the final game of the 2012 season, when they fell to Texas A&M 59-29 at Kyle Field.
The attendance for that game was 87,222.
Since then Mizzou is 5-0 in games played in front of 80-thousand or more, and one has to figure this streak will be on the line Saturday in Athens (unless 12,000+ decide to stay home, which is a lot).
For whatever it's worth, this is the first such game of the year for the Tigers. Their largest attendance thus far is last week's loss to Florida, which brough out 70,767.
10) Georgia gave up 38 points in three straight games:
Following last week's 38-31 loss to Tennessee and the 38-10 loss to Alabama the week prior, the Bulldogs are in dangerous territory of giving up 38 points three straight games for the first time in more than a century.
That would be the first time that happened since the final three games of 1900.
Georgia gave up 39, 55 and 44 in losses to Clemson, North Carolina and Auburn, respectively.
***
That's all we've got in the historical stats department for this week.
As for the point spread, I hope I eat my words like I did against South Carolina when I said "I'd take the road team and the points all day."
