Georgia's summer likely warmer, drier than normal

ATHENS - Georgia' s summer will likely be warmer and drier than normal through at least through early August, according to state climatologist David Stooksbury, but the state should escape a return of drought conditions this year.

Stooksbury says temperatures and rainfall in late summer and early fall will depend on the number and tracks of tropical weather systems.

"The early summer following an El Niño winter climate pattern  like we had this past winter -- is typically warmer and drier than normal," Stooksbury said. "With the warmer temperatures and drier-than-normal conditions, soil moisture will quickly decrease over the next two months. However, because of the abundant rain this past winter and early spring, water resources are expected to remain in good shape across the state through this summer."

The number of tropical storms this summer is expected to be above normal. Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures are currently above normal. "This favors the formation of tropical systems, including tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes," Stooksbury said.

An additional factor favoring the development of tropical systems is the atmosphere transitioning from an El Niño climate pattern to a neutral climate pattern. Neutral and La Niña climate patterns favor the formation of tropical weather systems.

An El Niño climate pattern typically transitions into a neutral pattern for several months. However, it appears that the ocean-atmosphere system will only spend a few months in the neutral pattern before changing into a La Niña pattern, Stooksbury said.

"Historically, the East Coast, including Georgia, is more likely to be directly impacted by hurricanes when the atmosphere is in the La Niña climate pattern. There is a good chance that atmosphere will be near transition to or in a La Niña by the heart of hurricane season."

Up-to-date weather information is available at the website www.georgiaweather.net. Historic climate data is available at the website climate.engr.uga.edu.