ATLANTA - The 2010 general election is 19 months away, an eternity in politics. But as this year's legislative session draws to a close, the jockeying has already begun among the state's power brokers.
Contests up and down the ballot will be up for grabs from one of Georgia's U.S. Senate seats to all 236 state legislative positions. But the governor's race is clearly shaping up as the main attraction. Six candidates have already jumped into the fray and several more including former Gov. Roy Barnes are considering bids.
The lure of an open seat when Gov. Sonny Perdue's second term expires sets up the possibility of contentious primaries among both Democrats and Republicans.
It could make for a grueling and costly marathon.
``This is a race that is absolutely destined to be nasty,'' said Kerwin Swint, a political science professor at Kennesaw State University who wrote a book on negative campaigns.
``It's going to be crowded. It's going to be dirty. It's going to break fundraising records. It'll be a real donnybrook,'' Swint said.
On the Republican side, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, Secretary of State Karen Handel, state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine and state Rep. Austin Scott, of Tifton, are running. Cobb County Commission Chairman Sam Olens is also considering entering the race.
Among Democrats, Attorney General Thurbert Baker and David Poythress, former commander of the Georgia National Guard, have thrown their hats in. Barnes, who served one term as governor from 1998 to 2002, and House Minority Leader DuBose Porter are also mulling whether to run.
The first critical test will be the dash for cash. Many state office holders in Georgia are barred from fundraising during the 40-day legislative session. But the floodgates will open once the final gavel sounds.
The candidates' ability to fill their campaign coffers will provide the first real glimpse of who has the support to go all the way. The next campaign filings are due June 30. Cagle and Oxendine were the only GOP candidates in the race when the last filings were due Dec. 31. Cagle had raised $1.3 million and Oxendine $1 million. Meanwhile, Democrat Poythress had raised $304,000.
``Early on, people will want to judge the horse race,'' said Rick Dent, a Democratic strategist who has worked on campaigns in Georgia and Alabama. ``And one of the best ways to judge that is who has the money. The one who has the most money will have an easier time getting more of it.''
Even during the legislative session, the candidates have been working furiously to pad their resumes for the long campaign trail ahead with an eye toward the primaries.
The GOP field has courted conservatives.
Handel has aggressively pushed a bill requiring citizenship checks for those registering to vote. Cagle cast himself as a foe of wasteful spending pushing for the sale of a little-used, state-owned aircraft. Oxendine has emerged as a champion of the consumer and a fiscal conservative calling on state leaders to take pay cuts. Scott, the only GOP candidate who doesn't already hold statewide office, sought to grab the spotlight by blocking a Senate resolution honoring Democratic President Barack Obama.
Poythress has been taking part in a steady stream of community events around the state hoping to boost his name recognition. Baker, the state's top black elected official, has worked mostly in the background. Although, he did decline earlier this year to file a brief before the U.S. Supreme Court opposing continued Voting Rights Act oversight in Georgia. The Voting Rights Act is considered a crown jewel of the civil rights movement and Baker's opposition could create problems with blacks, who make up more than half of Democratic primary voters.
Georgia Republican fundraiser Eric Tannenblatt, former chief of staff to Perdue, said the strong GOP field is a sign of how far the party has come after decades in the cold. Perdue's upset win in 2002 made him the first Republican governor in the state since Reconstruction. And Georgia has grown increasingly conservative since then.
``I'm sort of watching this with a huge smile on my face because I'm remembering what it w as like when we couldn't even find candidates for these races,'' Tannenblatt said. ``Competition can be a good thing.''
But Dent, the Democratic strategist, said that if both parties engage in tough primary campaigns it will help level the playing field for the general election. Dent worked on then-Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor's failed 2006 gubernatorial campaign. Taylor emerged the winner after a bitterly fought primary that took a toll on his image and bank account. Then he ran straight into Perdue, who did not have a primary challenger and had used the time to raise money and promote a positive image.
``If both sides come out bloody, bruised and broke then it doesn't matter,'' Dent said.
Of course, the governor's race won't be the only big political contest on the ballot. U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson is seeking a second term in 2010. But the Atlanta Republican has yet to draw a Democratic challenger. The decisions by Cagle, Handel and Baker to run for the governor's seat has each set off furious maneuvering to replace them.
And for those political junkies who just can't wait until 2010, there is the Atlanta mayor's race later this year.
At least 15 people have declared their intent to replace Shirley Franklin at City Hall. The race heated up last week when City Council President Lisa Borders jumped in. Her council colleagues Mary Norwood and Ceasar Mitchell are also in the race.
And in a true sign that the campaign trail begins as the session ends, state Sen. Kasim Reed, who's also running for mayor, was set to hold a news conference outside the state Capitol minutes as the session gaveled to a close.