<p>Delta Air Lines says that after bankruptcy it will be worth as much as $12 billion. Its unwelcome suitor, US Airways, says Delta's value is what it is offering to buy it for: currently about $8.4 billion. Creditors must decide which proposal makes the most sense.</p><p>Analysts differed Wednesday on whether Delta's valuation, which it announced in its reorganization plan a day earlier, is realistic in light of high fuel prices, the slowing economy and the airline industry's history in recent years of bad financial news.</p><p>Some believe it's likely US Airways will raise its offer, while other analysts aren't sure it's necessary right now. One thing most agree on: Delta has made clear its desire to remain independent.</p><p>What Delta's unsecured creditors believe is an open question; A lawyer for the unsecured creditors committee, Daniel Golden, did not immediately return calls and e-mails Wednesday seeking comment. Analysts don't expect a quick decision from the committee on whether it supports Delta's stand-alone plan, US Airways' buyout offer or any other bid that may come in.</p><p>Lehman Brothers analyst Gary Chase said in a research note Wednesday that he doesn't buy Atlanta-based Delta's projection that its equity value will be $9.4 billion to $12 billion when it emerges from bankruptcy next spring.</p><p>His firm believes the Delta plan is valued at $8 billion to $9.5 billion, which would put it in line with US Airways' offer when the Tempe, Ariz.-based company's promise of $1.65 billion in cost savings from the deal is factored in.</p><p>"More conservative valuation analysis points to overall numbers less compelling than the headlines and more in line with initial US Airways offer," Chase wrote.</p><p>He added that he doesn't expect any quick decisions.</p><p>"We think US Airways has room to raise its bid, but we don't expect an immediate counter to the plan," Chase wrote. "It isn't clear that one is warranted and would be premature before gauging creditor reactions to the stand-alone plan."</p><p>At the same time, Chase said he doesn't believe Delta is posturing for a better offer from US Airways.</p><p>"Delta's plan makes clear its intent to remain independent," Chase wrote.</p><p>An official with knowledge of US Airways' plans who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the talks said Monday that US Airways was willing to increase its offer if Delta could justify it is worth more.</p><p>Ray Neidl, an airline analyst with Calyon Securities in New York, agreed immediate decisions aren't likely, but he also said he believes Delta's valuation projection is plausible.</p><p>"They're a bit on the aggressive side, but they're doable," Neidl said.</p><p>A lot won't be known until Delta says how many shares it plans to issue in the new company and investors decide how much the initial public offering will go for. Even so, Neidl only gives the US Airways proposal a "30 percent to 40 percent" chance of success in its present form.</p><p>Neidl noted that expectations for the valuation of UAL Corp.'s United Airlines before it emerged from Chapter 11 were tempered somewhat, but that the IPO was more than what some people thought.</p><p>United's original estimate of what the shares would fetch was based on a study by the Rothschild investment bank pegging the company's post-bankruptcy value at between $300 million and $3.5 billion. The midpoint of that range would have put the shares' value at about $15. Heightened interest in the stock drove the shares to $40 in five days of trading on a "when-issued" basis on Nasdaq's bulletin board before they went live in trading on the Nasdaq. The stock later lost nearly half its initial valuation before rebounding, and it is now trading in the $44-a-share range.</p><p>Goldman Sachs said in a research report Wednesday that it believes Delta's post-Chapter 11 equity value will be at the low end of its projected range of $9.4 billion to $12 billion. It believes US Airways' cash-stock mix favors US Airways, while the overall risk versus reward favors Delta's plan.</p><p>Delta, for its part, reiterated Wednesday that it believes the valuation prepared by its advisers is on target.</p><p>"The valuation in the disclosure statement was prepared by The Blackstone Group, a reputable and well regarded firm, using standard valuation measures," Delta spokesman Michael Freitag said.</p><p>Money, of course, isn't the only issue. Delta has spent significant time arguing that US Airways' proposal won't pass regulatory scrutiny in part because of the two companies' overlapping routes.</p><p>"I think a lot depends on signals coming out of Washington," Neidl said.</p><p>Also Wednesday, Delta said it will begin accepting applications for new-hire pilots in anticipation of exhausting its recall of furloughed pilots next year, and separately the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. was expected to give the final go-ahead to Delta to terminate its pilots' pension plan. A hearing on the pension issue was being held in New York.</p><p>HASH(0x1ce0a94)</p><p>___</p><p>AP Business Writer Dave Carpenter contributed to this report from Chicago.</p>
