Is Christian right losing its punch in Georgia politics?

ATLANTA - They took the Georgia Republican Party by storm in 1988 and have been wielding influence ever since. But results from last week's primary elections have left some wondering if the religious right is beginning to lose some of its political punch.

Despite opposition from those who viewed him as not conservative enough on abortion, Rep. Johnny Isakson easily won the GOP Senate nomination in Tuesday's primary, defeating two rivals considered more in tune with the party's right wing on abortion.

And despite opposition from many within the Christian conservative movement who considered her a liberal, activist judge, Supreme Court Justice Leah Sears easily turned back a challenge from the white conservative rival backed by the coalition.

Political analysts were quick to read the results as a sign that the movement birthed by religious broadcaster Pat Robertson has lost some steam. Others argue it's not that simple and the results can't be interpreted that way.

Isakson's 53-percent victory over rivals Herman Cain and Mac Collins came despite opposition from the political arm of the anti-abortion group Georgia Right to Life, which found his position unacceptable.

Isakson had said he would allow abortions for rape, incest or to save the life of the mother. Each of his rivals said the procedure should only be allowed to save the mother's health.

The issue stopped Isakson in his tracks eight years earlier when he lost a runoff for the GOP Senate nomination to businessman Guy Millner.

But several things have changed. One was the huge increase in voters choosing a Republican ballot between Isakson's 1996 loss and his 2004 win. Nearly 650,000 people voted in the GOP primary last week compared to 447,000 in 1996.

"It looks as though that expanded electorate has brought in not only more conservatives but a lot of moderate voters," said Emory University political science professor Merle Black. "The size of the Christian right in the Georgia Republican party is probably considerably smaller than eight years ago."

University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock said it's apparent that as more people opt for a Republican ballot the influence of Christian conservatives is diminishing.

Not everyone agrees.

Republican pollster Whit Ayres of Atlanta said: "It's more a matter of Johnny Isakson reaching out to conservatives _ especially religious conservatives _ and demonstrating that his voting record was very much like Paul Coverdell's."

Republican state Rep. Jerry Keen of St. Simons Island, a former chairman of the Christian Coalition, said Christian conservatives never saw the GOP Senate race as a choice between two conservatives and a moderate, as Isakson's rivals sought to portray it.

Therefore, it was never a matter of Christian conservatives losing clout, he argued.

"Had someone run as a clear moderate, I don't think they would be the nominee," said Keen, who supported Isakson in the race.

The Supreme Court race was billed as nonpartisan, but political footprints were all over it. Democrats backed Sears and Republicans backed Grant Brantley. Brantley's biggest boosters included Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue and many within the Christian conservative movement.

The Christian Coalition, an outgrowth of Robertson's 1988 presidential bid, conducted a first-ever survey of judicial candidates in a bid to get conservative judges elected to the bench. The group distributed a half million copies of its voter guide just before the election. Brantley replied to the survey. Sears did not.

Sears won with 62 percent of the vote.

"You would have thought Brantley had a better shot," Keen said.

GOP insiders privately blame an underfunded, late-starting campaign for Brantley's loss, while Sears portrays the result as a sign that Georgia "has become a moderate-to-conservative state but definitely is no longer far-right."

Ayres, the Republican pollster, said the lesson from Tuesday's voting is simply that the religious right continues to be "a significant minority of Georgia voters, but it's still a minority. You've got to have other people to join your coalition if you want to win a statewide race."

The religious right came to power in Georgia in 1988 when dissident Robertson supporters staged a six-month battle with old guard Republican leaders and eventually gained half the seats at that year's national convention.

Among the party regulars who lost his convention credentials in the uproar was Bainbridge businessman Alec Poitevint, who went on to chair the party the following year and now is serving a second stint as chairman.

"The arrival of the Robertson people was a wonderful thing," he said. "But it was a painful process."

Poitevint sides with those who see in the election a moderating trend for the party.

"I think what you're seeing is, people that are very conservative becoming much more mainstream and tending to judge people as a whole, rather than on a single issue. And I think that played to Johnny's advantage," he said.