Phillies not conceding NL East to Braves

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Posted 7:18PM on Monday, July 14, 2003

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - The Philadelphia Phillies figured they'd be in playoff contention at the All-Star break. They'll have to settle for the NL wild-card race. Despite having the third-best record in the NL, the Phillies (52-40) trail the East-leading Atlanta Braves by 8.5 games at the unofficial midpoint of the season. But after winning 18 of their last 26 games, the Phillies have a one-game lead over Arizona for the wild card spot. Neither manager Larry Bowa nor any of his players will concede the East to the Braves, who have won an unprecedented 11 straight division titles. However, it's unlikely Atlanta will lose such a big lead in the standings. If the Braves went just 35-34 in their remaining 69 games, the Phillies would have to go 44-26 in their last 70 games to catch them. It's possible Philadelphia could win 44 of 70, but improbable the Braves would play just one game over .500 the rest of the way. The race for the wild card should involve several teams. Eight clubs Arizona, Houston, Los Angeles, St. Louis, Montreal, Florida, Colorado and Chicago are within six games of the Phillies. One of those teams the Astros, Cardinals or Cubs will win the Central, leaving seven clubs to compete with Philadelphia for the wild card. The Phillies could separate themselves from the rest of the pack if their offense finally performs up to expectations in the second half. So far, strong pitching has been the main reason Philadelphia is in contention. While Jim Thome has given the Phillies what they expected after signing him to an $85 million-contract last offseason, left fielder Pat Burrell and third baseman David Bell have been major disappointments. Burrell, who received a $50 million, six-year extension after a breakout season in which he hit .282 with 37 homers and 116 RBIs, is batting just .192 with 12 homers, 34 RBIs and 100 strikeouts. Bell, who signed a $17 million, four-year deal, is batting only .198 with four homers and 37 RBIs after hitting .261 with 20 homers and 73 RBIs for the NL champion San Francisco Giants last year. Also, shortstop Jimmy Rollins (.259, 11-for-20 in steals) failed to establish himself as a legitimate leadoff hitter and has been dropped to sixth in the batting order. Bobby Abreu (.274, 14 homers, 56 RBIs) isn't putting up numbers equivalent to other middle-of-the-lineup hitters in the majors. The offense isn't a complete bust, however. Besides Thome (.266, 23, 67), catcher Mike Lieberthal, second baseman Placido Polanco and rookie center fielder Marlon Byrd are having fine seasons. Lieberthal, overlooked for his third All-Star team, is tied for third in the NL with a .332 average. Polanco is hitting .286 and is 10-for-10 in steals. Overcoming a dreadful start, Byrd has emerged as the team's best leadoff hitter, hitting .288 with a .362 on-base percentage. Pitching has carried the Phillies while the hitters have struggled. Philadelphia's top four starters are 37-24, and each has at least eight wins. The team ERA of 3.55 is second in the majors behind only the Dodgers (3.07). Randy Wolf, the Phillies' lone All-Star, is 10-4 with a 3.31 ERA. Kevin Millwood (10-6, 3.60) is pitching well again after a stretch in which he lost five of six decisions. He also pitched a no-hitter against San Francisco in April. Brett Myers (9-6, 3.65) in just his first full season has shown he has the potential to be one of the best pitchers in the league. Vicente Padilla (8-8, 3.81) has regained the form that made him an All-Star last season. Fifth starter Brandon Duckworth (3-3, 4.76) is the only question mark. Most surprising has been the bullpen. Rheal Cormier (2-0, 1.52) and Turk Wendell (1-2, 1.59) have been outstanding, and Terry Adams (1-3, 2.72) and Dan Plesac (1-0, 2.16) have been reliable. Closer Jose Mesa (4-5, 4.73) has converted 18 of 21 save chances, even though he rarely makes it easy. If the pitchers continue to build on their success and the offense improves, the Phillies have a solid chance at reaching the postseason for the first time since 1993.