Researchers plan for anthrax attack

WASHINGTON - If terrorists should attack an American city with anthrax, the first warning could come from a security action as simple as monitoring sales of flu medicine. <br> <br> Since the early symptoms of inhaled anthrax are similar to the flu, researchers at Carnegie Mellon University say a sudden jump in sales at drug stores and supermarkets could tip off authorities before victims become ill enough to seek medical attention. <br> <br> Officials would have to confirm the disease before spreading the alarm, however, and a system would have to be worked out to tell the difference between anthrax and an outbreak of flu or other more common normal diseases. <br> <br> Anthrax has been the focus of much attention since last fall&#39;s anthrax-by-mail attacks that killed five people and made others sick. <br> <br> The Carnegie Mellon study was under way long before those attacks, said Stephen Feinberg of the university&#39;s department of statistics. <br> <br> He said it focuses on larger-scale attacks in urban areas, not the relatively limited hazard posed last fall by the mailed germs. <br> <br> ``We&#39;re talking about exposures of thousands of people in a concentrated location,&#39;&#39; Feinberg explained. ``Then you&#39;ve got very large-scale impact to assess, and every second counts.&#39;&#39; <br> <br> Their report is published in Tuesday&#39;s issue of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. <br> <br> Currently, scientists watch sales of antibiotics to find unusual outbreaks of disease. The system proposed by the Carnegie Mellon researchers would extend that to over-the-counter medications. <br> <br> Gregory Gray, an epidemiologist at the University of Iowa, cited a precedent for using such sales to detect disease. An outbreak in the early 1990s of the intestinal parasite cryptosporidium in Milwaukee was detected by pharmacists who noticed a run on antidiarrheal medicines, he said. <br> <br> The Carnegie Mellon work could point to a more broad-based method for detecting bioterrorism attacks. <br> <br> That would have to take into account seasonal sales patterns, local flu outbreaks, cut-price sales, store hours and other factors that affect sales levels. <br> <br> An early warning could give a head start toward reducing the number of deaths if an attack were occurring. <br> <br> If anthrax were caught in its early stages, treatment with antibiotics could greatly improve chances for survival. <br> <br> The disease&#39;s flu-like symptoms may persist for as long as three days before becoming more severe, but once the severe stage sets in, death can occur in as little as two hours, the researchers noted.