For more than three decades, North Georgia real estate expert Frank Norton, Jr., has crunched numbers, analyzed data and kept an eagle eye on trends that impact the economic health of his home region.
Norton delivered his Native Intelligence Report for 2019 in a brand-new setting Tuesday night - the new campus of Lanier Technical College just north of Gainesville.
For this year's assessment Norton focused on affordability, expansion and investment. He explained his Top 10 Trends of 2018, and what people can expect in the new year. Norton referred to this as the "Five Challenges for Tomorrow."
The first point in his economic forecast was Living with Zero. Norton said our real estate market is as close to zero as it has ever been. He predicts employers, industry recruiters and housing for the labor market will suffer a shortage for the next 10 years, because while Hall County has been a long-time importer of labor, 26.7% of Hall County workers live outside of the county. Businesses in northern counties, such as Amazon, have raised hourly wages enough to keep their county workers in their own county, Norton said.
"We are still a regional economy, but distance travel does not trump local community connectivity," Norton said. "A zero home housing climate is disastrous to business expansion."
Latino Establishment was another prediction for 2019. Norton categorized the Latino community into three parts: before, migration and settlement. He said before, Latinos were not a huge part of the community, but the poultry business brought in a number of migrant workers. Before, Latinos were mostly renting homes and saving their money. Now, Latinos are owning homes, buying rental properties and supporting their own businesses--what Norton called "living the American dream."
"We see the new era as a benchmark, the Latino community has moved into the mainstream," Norton said. "At 28.8% of Hall's population coupled with $1.1 billion in purchasing power, it's time the rest of Hall take notice."
Norton followed with Acreage Opportunity. He said that owning land is a huge opportunity, and the cost will never be cheaper than it is today. Generational changes have left land owners ready to sell, according to Norton. He said that as land is passed down to the younger generations, they are beginning to lose an emotional connection to the family plots.
"Granddaddy invested money, sweat and tears, but grandchildren are thirsty for that condo at Disney World, an addition to their house or filling their own retirement plan," Norton said.
Labor Cannibalism was Norton's fourth challenge of 2019. He said that the biggest downside of full employment is full employment, meaning that it is getting more difficult for businesses to find the help they need. Norton said there is not a quick solution to the problem, but there are ideas. He said that high school level students could receive a more technical education, matching jobs with internships, and keeping children engaged in hometown job opportunities. He also said there needs to be more affordable housing to meet all price points because if businesses do recruit out-of-state or out-of-county workers, where will they live, and will they be able to afford it while the housing market is up?
The last predicted challenge of 2019 was Voting the Locals off of the Planet. Norton said that locals are "losing the war," and people are moving into local communities from outside the region, overturning the DNA. Norton said that these new residents travel south for work, and only live in North Georgia counties to "eat, sleep and do weekend activities."
"They read and listen to Atlanta media, shop for higher-end goods in Gwinnett, Dekalb and North Fulton," Norton said. "They give money to United Way at work, and their social network is in closed terrariums of their community pool and their children's soccer games. Stop growth."
Norton said local residents need to become more involved in their communities.
