Climatologist: expect colder weather this winter

ATHENS - The winter climate outlook for Georgia is in a word, variable - according to state Climatologist David Stooksbury.

"Georgians this winter can expect wide swings in temperatures with several extremely cold outbreaks," Stooksbury says. "Thus Georgians are encouraged to prepare for very cold weather."

There will also be periods of much above normal temperatures, "which will remind us why we like living in the South," he added.

With wide swings in temperatures expected, the probability of severe thunderstorms and tornados throughout the winter is above normal, according to Stooksbury.

Tornados during the winter in Georgia are common, he noted. "They can occur anytime
of day or night. A NOAA weather radio is an essential safety items that all homes, businesses, churches, and any location where people gather should have."

"In the mountains," Stooksbury said, "low temperatures below zero can be expected this
winter. Single digit lows can be expected as far south as the northern coastal plain. Much of south Georgia can expect lows around 10 degrees. Even along the coast, lows in the lower teens are expected this winter."

However, he says the winter also promises periods of very nice weather. High temperatures ranging from the upper 60s in the mountains to around 80 in south Georgia are expected.

Stooksbury says the rainfall outlook is uncertain for this winter in Georgia.

"Under the current climate pattern, atmospheric scientists have very little skill in
forecasting winter rain."

The winter climate pattern in the southeast is primarily determined by the Southern Oscillation - El Nino or ENSO phase. When in the El Nino phase, Georgia expects a cool and wet winter. When in the La Nina phase, we expect a warm and dry winter.

"Currently we are in a neutral phase," Stooksbury said. "For Georgia a neutral phase brings wide swings in temperature."

The rainfall patterns under the neutral phase show great variability, he said. Some neutral phase winters are very dry while others are very wet. Most are near normal.

With periods of extreme cold, there is a better chance than normal that Georgia will experience some frozen precipitation this winter. "I expect at least one major winter weather event in north Georgia this winter."