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Stooksbury: Yearly rainfall deficits don't tell whole story

By Ken Stanford Contributing Editor
Posted 9:39AM on Saturday 5th January 2008 ( 16 years ago )
ATHENS - What you hear or see is not necessarily the whole story... at least when it comes to rainfall deficits. So, says state climatologist David Stooksbury.

His opinion of those running rainfall deficits you hear about almost daily: "That's kind of an artificial designation. We may be in a 20-inch deficit on December 31st and, low and behold, we wake up on January first and there's, there's no rain deficit."

For his part, in calculating the seriousness of a drought, Stooksbury says "we don't look at rainfall deficits since the beginning of the year."

What you have to do to get the true picture, Stooksbury says, is look at the cumulative deficit over a period of years.

Gainesville, for instance, has a deficit of more than 47 inches for the past four years, although it is much worse in other parts of the state. Last year, in Gainesville, the deficit was 23.08 inches; in 2006, the deficit was 16.47 inches; in 2005, 2.23; and in 2004, 5.53 inches.

As for the new year, Stooksbury, in a report issue just before the end of 2007, said he fears the drought will only worsen in 2008.

Stooksbury said at a mid-December news conference the drought could expand through the rest of the state and lead to "catastrophic" conditions in the summer.

"Drought conditions will persist across regions of Georgia currently in drought," Stooksbury said at the tiem. "Drought conditions will likely expand statewide by spring."

He added Lake Lanier and other large water supply sources may bounce back some over the winter but "the big concern is they are not going to come up enough."

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