Hurricane expert predicts below-average season

DENVER - Hurricane expert William Gray has revised his forecast for the 2002 Atlantic storms downward and is now predicting a much less active hurricane season. <br> <br> In a report released May 31, Gray and his Colorado State University forecast team predicted eleven named storms and six hurricanes, two of them major. <br> <br> Wednesday, he predicted a below-average season of nine named storms, four hurricanes and only one major hurricane. <br> <br> In April, Gray predicted 12 named storms and seven hurricanes, three of them major. <br> <br> Although two tropical storms -- Arthur and Bertha -- have hit the Atlantic basin in the past few weeks, Gray said overall ocean and atmospheric fluctuations since June first prompted him to reduce the forecast. <br> <br> In a written statement, Gray said ``The fact that we have witnessed two weak early season high latitude named storms does not mean that we will have an active hurricane season. In fact, due to recent changes in climate signals, we now believe the 2002 Atlantic basic hurricane season will be considerably below the long-term average and much below what has been experienced in six of the last seven years.&#39;&#39; <br> <br> Gray said the forecast revision is partly due to cooling of Atlantic basin sea surface temperatures, a large increase in Atlantic sea surface pressures and a strengthening of some winds. <br> <br> For the first time in five years, he said there is a below-average likelihood of a hurricane hitting the U.S. mainland. <br> <br> Gray&#39;s team plans to issue an updated seasonal forecast again on September second.

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