Study: Manure controls could hinder farms

Posted 9:41AM on Sunday 14th April 2002 ( 23 years ago )

WASHINGTON - Proposed anti-pollution regulations for big livestock and poultry farms could cut production and force operations to move to areas such as the Midwest and Plains where there is plentiful cropland for using manure as fertilizer, a government study finds. It also shows that the industry restructuring could raise commodity prices and increase farm income by nearly 30 percent, without significantly affecting consumer prices. Some financially shaky farms ``will likely be forced out of business'' by the cost of complying with the regulations, the Agriculture Department study said. The rules were proposed by the Environmental Protection Agency at the end of the Clinton administration. They would expand the number of cattle feedlots and hog farms that have to get pollution permits, and impose new controls on poultry operations. The rules are intended to cut down on spills and farm runoff that have fouled lakes and streams in a number of states, from North Carolina to Washington. Every farm and feedlot would have to develop manure management plans that restrict the amount of manure that can be applied to cropland as fertilizer. Farms could spread no more manure on their land than their crops can use. The rules are under review by the Bush administration and could be revised. Their effect on the livestock and poultry industry will depend largely on how much manure crop farmers are willing to put on their fields, the study said. Manure is now used as fertilizer on about 17 percent of the nation's corn crop and 9 percent of soybeans. If manure use can increase to 40 percent of a region's fertilizer needs, there would be little effect on livestock and poultry farms. Production would stay largely the same and there would be little shift from one region to another, according to Agriculture Department economists. But if manure use does not exceed 20 percent, the effects would be substantial: -Production, as measured by the number of animals, would drop by 29 percent in the Southeast, 26 percent in the Rocky Mountain states and 21 percent in the Appalachian region, which includes North Carolina, the No. 2 state in hog production, the study found. -Production would increase up to 15 percent or more in the Plains states and Midwest. -Nationally, earnings for the livestock sector could jump as much as 28 percent, because of the higher commodity prices that would result from an overall decline in production, the economists said. Livestock farms that are small enough to avoid the EPA rules - such as dairy farms with fewer than 300 cattle - would come out winners. They would benefit from higher prices for their products, plus their feed costs would drop. Mark Jenner, an economist for the American Farm Bureau Federation, said manure use probably would reach 20 percent to 30 percent. But manure is more difficult to use than commercial fertilizer because of the varying nutrient content of manure. The increased use of manure as fertilizer also is a concern to the food industry because it can harbor potentially deadly bacteria, such as E. coli O157:H7. Jenner said regional shifts in livestock production have started as agribusinesses search for land away from urban areas and adequate sources of grain for feed. ``Mostly it's driven by the fact that animals these days and people don't mix very well,'' Jenner said. He said he believed the study was sound, although he doubted commodity prices would rise as the government predicted. The study was based on a complex economic model that takes into account the government's extensive data on land use, production costs and commodity prices.

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